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Crime and statistics

 

Theories about why crime rates fluctuate are as commonplace as theories about the nature of economic cycles.
These things are widely believed to run in cycles, which appear predictable in retrospect, but generally aren't predicted in advance, which is the key thing about making predictions.
Predicting crime rates and explaining trends in criminal behavior are difficult enterprises because they require predicting not only what a single off balance person (a criminal) will do, but also what a whole group of criminals will do in a particular area.
Rightly or wrongly, as a society, we equate low crime rates with effective police work. It's not entirely fair because police are called generally only after a crime is committed. Once a suspect is caught, it's not up to the police, but rather to the courts, to decide matters of guilt, punishment and rehabilitation.Sure, it's easy enough to predict that vandalism cases will increase in the springtime when the weather turns nice and especially when school lets out. Spikes in cases of malicious destruction of property less than $500, however, don't drive the discussion on criminal activity and whether it is being properly addressed.
Police do, however, have a role in crime prevention. It's widely assumed that a police presence in a neighborhood will help make that neighborhood safer, but it's a difficult thesis to prove.
A former police chief in Havre de Grace, who was particularly proud of his agency's crime prevention efforts, was fond of commenting that police were the only people who routinely and gladly promoted efforts to prevent crime, efforts that, if they were successful, would eliminate the need for police departments.
"We're trying to put ourselves out of business," he would say.
Then there's the matter of what constitutes a trend in criminal activity in a particular community. The most recent crime reports for Harford County, released last week by the Harford County Sheriff's Office from its calls for service, show an 80 percent increase in arson cases. Sounds like the county should be ablaze. In reality, it was hardly a trend as the number of cases increased from five to nine in the periods compared.
Similarly, it seems a bit odd that crime stats for the first six months of this year reflect a substantial downturn in reports of serious crimes, what are referred to as "Part 1 offenses," even as there has been a recent spike in deadly and near-deadly violence in Edgewood.
The matter of criminal activity in Harford County may be complicated, but it's well worth serious pondering, especially this summer. As is the case every four years, Harford County's de facto chief of police, the sheriff, must face the voters. Over the past quarter of a century or more, the county has had chief law enforcement officers who have met with varying levels of success.
The overall trend in criminal activity across the United States has been one of less crime. Theories abound as to the reasons, but it's fairly well documented, and consistent regardless of a given state's incarceration rate.
Locally, however, there have been flare-ups in criminal activity, and they're often attributed to the relative attention being paid to criminal hot spots by local law enforcement officials.
On the whole, the latest crime statistics show that criminal activity has declined, but the candidate looking to unseat the incumbent sheriff is quick to point out that, while crimes against property are down, certain crimes of personal violence are up.
Statistics are what they are, which is to say numbers that can be presented in ways that can help support conflicting arguments. In other words, the information is valuable and useful, but specific numbers that aren't necessarily reflective of reality can be used to support a particular point of view.
In this election season especially, voters should be wary of statistical claims made all around.
The long and short of it is that crime rates have been on the decline in Harford County, as they have been across the nation, but rates and numbers don't tell the whole story. What's most important is whether people feel safe, and the crime stats don't cover that.


Read more: http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/harford/aberdeen-havre-de-grace/ph-ag-edit-crime-0716-20140718,0,6391810.story#ixzz38WE3aKpw

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